International Logistics Freight Rates See a Sharp Rebound, Global Shipping Market Enters a New Phase of Price Fluctuations

Shortly after the 2025 National Day Golden Week, the global shipping market was hit by an unexpected price surge. After being under pressure for a while, international logistics freight rates saw a major reversal on October 10. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) jumped 4.12% in a single week, closing at 1,160.42 points and putting an end to the previous four consecutive weeks of decline right away.

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This bottoming-out and rebound of international logistics freight rates is mainly driven by a combination of factors: the rebalancing of supply and demand, joint price hikes by shipping companies, and the post-holiday peak in cargo shipments. September is the traditional off-season, when there was overcapacity and falling prices. After that, major liner companies quickly adjusted their strategies, stabilizing market expectations by cutting flights, controlling the number of container slots, and other measures.

What’s more noteworthy is that freight rates for some emerging shipping routes rose much faster than major routes, which shows the structural changes in global trade flows. For example, the freight rate for the Manzanillo route (to Central and South America) went up by 23.06%; the Santos route (in South America) rose by 14.67%; and the Persian Gulf route (in the Middle East) also saw a significant increase of 15.66%. The rapid growth in these regions comes from two aspects: on one hand, it’s because China’s economic and trade cooperation with regions like Latin America and the Middle East has deepened; on the other hand, it also means that global supply chains are moving toward being more diversified and regionalized. To avoid the risks of relying on a single market, enterprises are now expanding channels in emerging markets. This has driven up freight demand for relevant routes, which in turn pushed international logistics freight rates higher.

However, this freight rate rebound also exposes that the global shipping industry is highly sensitive to price adjustment mechanisms. In recent years, with the establishment of large shipping alliances and the popularity of digital scheduling systems, shipping companies’ ability to control shipping capacity has significantly improved. As long as there are signs of oversupply in the market, they can immediately adjust through measures like suspending sailings, cutting services, and temporary price hikes (GRI) to prevent prices from falling too much. Although this “precision control” model helps the industry keep profits stable, it also makes freight rate fluctuations more intense, bringing more cost uncertainty to small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises.

For most export enterprises, the sudden rise in international logistics freight rates no doubt increases pressure on operating costs. This is especially true for labor-intensive product exporters who already have thin profit margins—freight costs account for a large share of their total costs, so fluctuations in freight rates directly affect their willingness to take orders and their profitability. In addition, rising freight costs may also pass on to the end consumer market, further affecting overseas customers’ purchasing decisions and triggering a chain reaction.

Facing this round of rising international logistics freight rates, enterprises need to proactively take response measures. On one hand, they can book containers in advance and sign Long-Term Agreements (LTA) to lock in costs and avoid the risks of short-term fluctuations. On the other hand, they can optimize their supply chain layout, try new logistics models like multimodal transportation and advanced placement of overseas warehouses, and improve overall logistics efficiency. At the same time, government departments should also strengthen the monitoring and guidance of the shipping market, promote the establishment of a more transparent and fair freight rate formation mechanism, and protect the legitimate rights and interests of foreign trade enterprises.

Looking ahead, the traditional shopping seasons in Europe and the US are approaching at the end of the year. Global freight demand may increase further, and international logistics freight rates may continue to fluctuate at a high level. But if the global economic recovery is slow and consumer demand remains weak, it’s uncertain whether freight rates can keep rising. So shipping enterprises need to find a balance between pursuing short-term profits and maintaining long-term market stability.

In the future, as the international trade pattern continues to change, international logistics freight rates will be more frequently affected by factors like changes in supply and demand, geopolitics, and policy regulation.